Other than family and friends, my greatest passion is economics. Studying, teaching and discussing economics is, for me, an endless pursuit of fascinating social phenomena, a window into the mysteries of the challenges and achievements (and failures) of the human race.
All the moreso since I have lived through numerous momentous changes that have brought us to the remarkable global economy we now inhabit. To say that the modern and post-modern ages are unprecedented is a massive understatement. We are, indeed, living in a brave new world, but not in the sense that Huxley thought. It is full of contrasts, but it is not as a whole dystopia, though some parts and some episodes may be and may have been. Instead, it is full of promise for the creation of ever-increasing human capabilities.
Much of this is a hyped-up version of economic development as usual, much faster and much more transformative; but following the expected pattern of value creation through expanding trade, production, investment, migration, and, most important, innovation.
But one thing is completely new. For the first time ever, human societies are facing a transformative decline in fertility as a result of enrichment, not of starvation or catastrophe, but as a result of choice, of the rising value of human time. And this implies declining and aging populations, with rising degrees of dependency of the old on the young, and worker shortages, etc.
Clearly it is a transition period. If we are to survive as a species, the population must stabilize, or rebound to increase, at some point, and it is easy to imagine various economic models depicting this. But in the meantime, a long meantime, there will be challenges. I believe strongly that, if we let it, the market economy will adapt spontaneously, in ways that we might not yet imagine, but we will feel changes.
One of the challenges is to our perception of children and of families in general. There is enormous evidence showing the economic (and psychological) benefits of strong functional families and the bad effects of their absence. The decision not to have children implies, at the society level, a society not invested in the future.
We are biologically wired to want to produce children. Especially women (in general). The popularity of family TV shows endures. And shows like Call the Midwife - a remarkable, enduring success about pregnancy and babies - suggests as much. So, it is my hope that some incarnation of "family values" will characterize currently emerging generations as they enter this new bewildering world.
