I am not one of those economists who likes to predict things. That is why they don't pay me the big bucks. There are some things, however, that are easy to predict and about which I can now say "I told you so."
Concerning the Obama stimulus package, for example, I said more than once that it would not work, and that unemployment would not fall. Amazingly, people are surprised to find very few jobs being created and the unemployment rate stubbornly remaining very high. There are 15 million people unemployed. The Obami predicted that the stimulus would create upwards of 4 million jobs. It has created about zero. Actually, the whole package probably destroyed jobs. Absent the bail-outs, stimulus packages, public sector union wage increases and assorted regulatory initiatives, like the health-care socialization bill, we might not still be in a recession. Instead the public sector is growing at the expense of the private sector and the total number of jobs in the economy is stuck.
The economy is not doing badly all things considered. This is in spite of and not because of anything the Obami have done.
The response is predictably frustrating. In the face of failure Obami spokesmen maintain that "more needs to be done." That is, we need more stimulus, more deficits, more, more, more.
Now it’s the American people who will decide.